NFL · resolved market
Spread: ARI (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x122c8d1711a0a7215774e6cf355814e442ee6faa5cf353e33f1ea6d535270d78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- DALof ARI, DAL
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked DAL | 55c | 33,599$18,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,121.03 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked ARI | 45c | 25,242$11,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,358.9 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked ARI | 44c | 3,580$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed DAL | 56c | 1,740$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.49 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…694fbacked ARI | 45c | 1,528$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed ARI | 45c | 1,152$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed ARI | 45c | 916.58$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked ARI | 45c | 555$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked ARI | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked ARI | 45c | 272.41$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.09 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed ARI | 45c | 251.82$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.16 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed ARI | 49c | 245$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.05 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked DAL | 51c | 245$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.05 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed ARI | 45c | 166.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked ARI | 45c | 138$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed ARI | 45c | 124$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked ARI | 45c | 111$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed DAL | 53c | 102.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…4ce0backed ARI | 45c | 99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed ARI | 45c | 97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed ARI | 45c | 81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…8927backed ARI | 45c | 74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed ARI | 45c | 74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed ARI | 45c | 70.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…f5a9backed ARI | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed ARI | 43c | 68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed ARI | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c62…ca89backed ARI | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed ARI | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked ARI | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed ARI | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed ARI | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed DAL | 55c | 27.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88a0…f673backed ARI | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked DAL | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed ARI | 43c | 23.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cee…31eabacked ARI | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked ARI | 45c | 22.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: ARI (-1.5)this page
- Cowboys vs. CardinalsCowboys won
- DAL vs. ARI: O/U 37.5Over won
- DAL vs. ARI: O/U 38.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.