NFL · resolved market
DAL vs. ARI: O/U 37.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a92ec20108c35b5989737be2e92c0e8cf2abebc250d2f5d62937b882dcf2b31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 56c | 45,830$25,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,193.51 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 44c | 29,500$12,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,979.79 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 44c | 10,000$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,400 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 3,491$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630.24 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 44c | 2,477$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 54c | 1,952$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.73 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 45c | 1,666$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.7 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 52c | 1,450$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Under | 45c | 865.31$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.39 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 44c | 750$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 44c | 750$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1443…9e05backed Under | 46c | 400$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.82 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 46c | 323.36$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.41 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 48c | 276$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Over | 54c | 273$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Under | 44c | 213.21$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…2c99backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 57c | 151.34$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.71 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 44c | 148$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd233…14f3backed Over | 55c | 145.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9e…cca3backed Under | 45c | 123.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd0…a158backed Over | 54c | 115.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…796bbacked Over | 55c | 112.73$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 52c | 109.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed Over | 55c | 98.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 44c | 98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…2c8abacked Over | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 44c | 86.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 47c | 71.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…0009backed Under | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Under | 45c | 59.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 54c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…637cbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 40.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 46c | 38.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 55c | 34.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 47c | 34.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Under | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9f…10cabacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec05…a6e8backed Over | 61c | 22.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DAL vs. ARI: O/U 37.5this page
- Cowboys vs. CardinalsCowboys won
- DAL vs. ARI: O/U 38.5Over won
- Spread: ARI (-1.5)DAL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.