MLB · resolved market

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12308cea90686f146098301a9f67b6b6e5697fed63bb02170f13d7489915164f

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: May 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $44,965
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $38,684

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,965 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x26b4…b8a9backed Over	58c	17,681$10,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,200	441	54.2%239 W · 202 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under	42c	10,470$4,406 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,063.74	11,519	52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L	+213.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Over	33c	6,340$2,086 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,085.88	2,293	48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L	-24.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	37c	3,996$1,487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,487.15	8,192	46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L	+38.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6157…9fb4backed Over	57c	2,632$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	78	43.6%34 W · 44 L	-6.1wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	34c	2,071$704 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$703.67	10,979	51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L	+139.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over	44c	1,751$771 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$771.26	2,093	51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L	+44.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under	42c	1,302$547 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$755.03	1,586	48.5%770 W · 816 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	56c	1,114$620 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$494.31	12,328	46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L	-66.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	42c	1,000$420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$580	5,471	50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L	+21.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under	41c	982.56$403 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$579.71	999	24.6%246 W · 753 L	-70.3wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Under	43c	800$344 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$456	859	52.6%452 W · 407 L	+7.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under	42c	735.81$311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$425.27	3,509	51%1,789 W · 1,720 L	+53.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Under	42c	735$309 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$426.3	481	50.7%244 W · 237 L	+8.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	42c	699.99$294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$405.99	6,999	50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under	43c	529.81$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$304.48	8,403	47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L	+76.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Under	43c	500$215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$285	5,234	56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L	+130.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under	43c	460$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$262.2	1,769	51.6%912 W · 857 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12a2…c60dbacked Over	57c	426.21$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.94	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under	43c	353.09$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.03	9,819	46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L	+39.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under	43c	314$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$178.98	750	49.7%373 W · 377 L	+7.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over	57c	263.16$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	481	45.3%218 W · 263 L	-15.3wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over	56c	251.86$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.89	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over	23c	201$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.23	8,594	52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L	+508.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd38…99d4backed Over	57c	200$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	267	59.2%158 W · 109 L	+17.0wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under	42c	197.67$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.65	2,407	48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L	-62.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8fd…3e24backed Over	57c	192$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.31	110	47.3%52 W · 58 L	-8.5wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Under	42c	178.56$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.56	399	48.1%192 W · 207 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	43c	177$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.89	2,329	49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L	+41.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2342…12d6backed Over	58c	174.59$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.26	138	53.6%74 W · 64 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x085b…ab9fbacked Under	33c	151.45$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.47	339	34.5%117 W · 222 L	-9.3wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa77a…e6f9backed Over	71c	141.51$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	93	46.2%43 W · 50 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Under	48c	125$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65	410	51.7%212 W · 198 L	+14.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeee6…cbfebacked Over	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	100	36%36 W · 64 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Under	43c	97.67$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.67	639	43.3%277 W · 362 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4dea…5e23backed Under	46c	94.99$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.7	425	50.1%213 W · 212 L	+8.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc08c…4b12backed Over	34c	88.24$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5587…5737backed Over	34c	87.35$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	99	51.5%51 W · 48 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Over	49c	86$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.14	244	50%122 W · 122 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under	51c	86$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.14	3,841	42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over	49c	79.98$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.19	330	32.7%108 W · 222 L	-22.8wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Over	55c	74.54$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	396	53.5%212 W · 184 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4193…4853backed Over	56c	70$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	846	51.5%436 W · 410 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf3e…5d6cbacked Under	79c	60$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.6	35	40%14 W · 21 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over	67c	60$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.3	5,149	54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L	+231.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under	42c	57.32$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.08	2,995	47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L	+12.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e1c…35c6backed Over	56c	53.57$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd5f5…bb11backed Over	57c	50$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	559	53.1%297 W · 262 L	+10.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07c0…5dd2backed Under	47c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.5	184	58.2%107 W · 77 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under	44c	49.09$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.49	2,947	51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L	-34.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over	34c	44.25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	1,708	49.9%852 W · 856 L	-17.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ded…3350backed Over	33c	42.95$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	81	40.7%33 W · 48 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5569…c927backed Over	59c	41$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.37	128	58.6%75 W · 53 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	62cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under	44c	39.99$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.31	2,413	49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L	+22.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under	32c	38$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.84	1,843	43.6%804 W · 1,039 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	67c	37$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.1	2,546	45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L	-74.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-15%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2110…d4fbbacked Over	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	209	62.7%131 W · 78 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	65cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc057…804abacked Under	70c	28.57$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.57	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6639…6bcfbacked Under	43c	25.58$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.58	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+78.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Over	58c	24$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	393	44.3%174 W · 219 L	-22.5wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under	78c	21.91$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.82	1,083	56.3%610 W · 473 L	+13.7wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Under	76c	21.67$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.2	419	36.5%153 W · 266 L	-31.1wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x590a…c459backed Over	55c	21.6$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	114	51.8%59 W · 55 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc9c7…4e5bbacked Over	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.17per pick	53cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Over	57c	19$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	290	43.1%125 W · 165 L	-12.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5this page
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 2.5Under won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Under won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event