MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x709acbdef4f9afe2c963d17fad3509cfdfb345b16929724ab52efc33b196b8c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 2,890$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 1,824$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.28 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Yankees | 23c | 1,749$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.84 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 1,452$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.3 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 1,305$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.19 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 1,200$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 42c | 1,180$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.72 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 924.7$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.21 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked New York Yankees | 63c | 809.52$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 35c | 648.52$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.05 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Yankees | 68c | 612.06$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.2 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 46c | 566.26$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked New York Yankees | 47c | 552.77$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.37 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…0d90backed New York Yankees | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked New York Yankees | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 228 | 31.6%72 W · 156 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 499.38$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.65 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 492.98$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.86 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…3e23backed New York Yankees | 32c | 491.35$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.81 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 33c | 489.43$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.45 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…a80dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 327.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 303.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.71 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 255$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe7…68f3backed New York Yankees | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f0…1229backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 182.67$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 175$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 44c | 150.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 149.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.7 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 142$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9535…ccdcbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 129.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed New York Yankees | 68c | 120$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 37c | 96.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed New York Yankees | 67c | 88.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 87.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked New York Yankees | 49c | 81.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked New York Yankees | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Yankees | 69c | 59.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x361f…5edabacked New York Yankees | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed New York Yankees | 21c | 55.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Yankees | 42c | 53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…7572backed New York Yankees | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Toronto Blue Jays | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…3350backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 33.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed New York Yankees | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed New York Yankees | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed New York Yankees | 69c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed New York Yankees | 69c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 20.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 18.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 2.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.