MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7104f7e0d9a10039a9b77859fdceec118b0f6eb6006e59852ca3d7d65ed8526
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 27c | 10,172$2,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,770.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 4,986$2,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.59 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 4,409$2,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.49 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees | 39c | 3,850$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.03 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked New York Yankees | 40c | 3,360$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 2,872$2,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 36c | 2,584$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 2,529$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.59 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 1,657$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.75 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 35c | 1,519$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.95 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 1,028$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.31 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 79c | 844.83$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 654.17$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.13 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 500.44$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.18 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 464.64$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.21 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 380$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8f…449bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 363$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed New York Yankees | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 281.76$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.52 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed New York Yankees | 40c | 270.59$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked New York Yankees | 39c | 260$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 249.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Yankees | 7c | 249$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 22c | 245$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed New York Yankees | 38c | 222$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeded…bfe9backed New York Yankees | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed New York Yankees | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked New York Yankees | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 122.39$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 116.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed New York Yankees | 41c | 101$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb21…3138backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 93.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed New York Yankees | 39c | 90.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 83.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed New York Yankees | 40c | 76.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed New York Yankees | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 74.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked New York Yankees | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed New York Yankees | 38c | 65.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed New York Yankees | 30c | 60.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed New York Yankees | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed New York Yankees | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 49.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 47.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Yankees | 41c | 44.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…7572backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed New York Yankees | 40c | 41.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed New York Yankees | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked New York Yankees | 40c | 36.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…c08bbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 32.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed New York Yankees | 42c | 25.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed New York Yankees | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 24.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4412…f131backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 23.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbf…388ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 21.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 2.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.