MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd2651a2fc29f875864e59440f909a5f2ea7a46e2ca6a9af5ef899ac5e2bd222
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef1b…8697backed No | 52c | 12,500$6,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,462.36 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 53c | 2,760$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.59 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Yes | 50c | 2,109$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.71 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Yes | 48c | 2,065$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.73 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 48c | 1,777$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.93 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 50c | 1,600$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Yes | 50c | 1,042$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.22 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 50c | 943.42$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.29 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed No | 55c | 723.3$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed No | 50c | 521$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.17 | 252 | 47.6%120 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 49c | 513.16$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a1…e6d5backed No | 50c | 396$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…b386backed Yes | 49c | 350$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.5 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 51c | 254$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.74 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…76a1backed No | 49c | 239.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf45…ea2cbacked No | 49c | 231.08$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Yes | 52c | 228.68$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.68 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 47c | 204.44$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca4…348fbacked Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae6…7d39backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad1a…283ebacked No | 64c | 88.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Yes | 48c | 79.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 47c | 61.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 48c | 60.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 503 | 37.2%187 W · 316 L | -42.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58f…130dbacked Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 45c | 47.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes | 53c | 42.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…5c4bbacked No | 50c | 40.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Yes | 48c | 35.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787d…aecdbacked No | 51c | 35.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 187 | 48.1%90 W · 97 L | -14.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…40f7backed No | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1107…70a6backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankeesthis page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 2.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.