TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Greet Minnenof Greet Minnen, Janice Tjen
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$213,817
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$228,479

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $213,817 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Janice Tjen29c16,370$4,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,739.318,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Greet Minnen66c10,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,399.9864755.2%357 W · 290 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Janice Tjen43c9,334$4,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,010.865952.5%346 W · 313 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Janice Tjen34c8,335$2,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,834.061,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Greet Minnen75c8,128$6,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,066.542,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Greet Minnen67c7,468$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,468.3136346.8%170 W · 193 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Greet Minnen65c5,551$3,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,939.231,22753.2%653 W · 574 L-5.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb952…25ebbacked Janice Tjen14c3,864$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.0730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed Greet Minnen72c3,109$2,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.8838550.4%194 W · 191 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Greet Minnen76c2,627$2,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.815,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Greet Minnen67c2,588$1,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.061,26756.6%717 W · 550 L-18.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x23e4…e501backed Janice Tjen26c2,562$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6704528.9%13 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1032…c372backed Janice Tjen35c2,424$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.381118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-54.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0267…7f7ebacked Janice Tjen37c2,356$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.430436.2%110 W · 194 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Greet Minnen67c2,099$1,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.148,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Greet Minnen67c2,059$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.5911,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Janice Tjen29c2,018$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.926,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Janice Tjen22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4409,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Janice Tjen35c2,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6903,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Janice Tjen35c1,714$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001,86544.7%834 W · 1,031 L+36.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Janice Tjen35c1,706$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.081,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Greet Minnen67c1,643$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.6226847.8%128 W · 140 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef46…b0eabacked Janice Tjen44c1,500$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66039438.1%150 W · 244 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Janice Tjen35c1,420$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4971,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Janice Tjen38c1,391$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.0693740.6%380 W · 557 L-32.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-24.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Greet Minnen73c1,312$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.114,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Greet Minnen70c1,123$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.14,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeab…9cd0backed Janice Tjen6c1,109$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5250442.7%215 W · 289 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9807…157bbacked Janice Tjen38c1,050$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.9833438.6%129 W · 205 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Janice Tjen47c1,008$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.1446435.3%164 W · 300 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Janice Tjen34c986.9$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.542,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Janice Tjen3c976$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.363746%293 W · 344 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Janice Tjen37c959.98$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.9947854.8%262 W · 216 L+25.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb888…b15bbacked Janice Tjen35c880.51$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.18714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-76.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8969…2cabbacked Janice Tjen30c795.24$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2404045%18 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc820…9e00backed Janice Tjen42c770.24$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3202556%14 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0206…bf76backed Greet Minnen66c757.58$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.584763.8%30 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Greet Minnen62c727.65$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.541,14853%608 W · 540 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Janice Tjen55c727.27$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Janice Tjen40c700$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.2620040%80 W · 120 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Greet Minnen61c620.46$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.893,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2642…bfc4backed Janice Tjen28c615.2$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.454231%13 W · 29 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Janice Tjen33c600$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1987,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa99f…164bbacked Janice Tjen22c569.04$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.627528.4%78 W · 197 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-7.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Janice Tjen22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1104,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Janice Tjen38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19085634.2%293 W · 563 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Janice Tjen39c500$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.272,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcf46…8734backed Janice Tjen4c499.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick28cpaid-83.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Janice Tjen34c435$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.995140.1%381 W · 570 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Greet Minnen61c419.5$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.9273748%354 W · 383 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Greet Minnen66c378.79$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.796453.1%34 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Janice Tjen4c373$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9245737.9%173 W · 284 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00c8…b05ebacked Greet Minnen56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.143842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Janice Tjen35c353.75$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1255,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb767…d848backed Greet Minnen60c333$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.222667.7%153 W · 73 L+1.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68fc…6d33backed Greet Minnen65c311.11$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.09425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-61.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Janice Tjen34c310.4$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.541,06557.4%611 W · 454 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Greet Minnen66c298.51$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.491,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65eb…2c83backed Janice Tjen35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004252.4%22 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50b8…3fc9backed Janice Tjen29c279.85$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803040%12 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Greet Minnen63c279.39$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.399556.8%54 W · 41 L+0.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Janice Tjen41c268.29$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101,42848.2%689 W · 739 L+4.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Janice Tjen39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,26634.2%433 W · 833 L-43.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f6b…b245backed Janice Tjen38c253.61$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.377162%44 W · 27 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9244…643cbacked Janice Tjen4c250.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108655.8%48 W · 38 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Janice Tjen4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1063144.1%278 W · 353 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Greet Minnen59c240$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.46160.7%37 W · 24 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x26a7…4fbabacked Janice Tjen44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007428.4%21 W · 53 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Greet Minnen60c211.64$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841,42155%782 W · 639 L+23.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Janice Tjen40c205.08$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0342141.8%176 W · 245 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Janice Tjen34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Janice Tjen6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.815356.2%86 W · 67 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Janice Tjen39c196.05$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.313243.9%58 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x230f…9ff4backed Janice Tjen21c195.98$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.474544.4%20 W · 25 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-25.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Janice Tjen29c194.5$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.668,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87d1…3744backed Janice Tjen53c186.79$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991,10466.9%739 W · 365 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Greet Minnen62c175$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.538952.2%203 W · 186 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddf5…aaa3backed Greet Minnen60c170$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6869253.3%369 W · 323 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83c2…626ebacked Janice Tjen37c166.12$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.131838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Greet Minnen65c165.88$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.951,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b6…e0a0backed Greet Minnen61c159.02$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0213262.9%83 W · 49 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e41…b875backed Greet Minnen66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5271165.1%463 W · 248 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Greet Minnen62c151.37$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5245751%233 W · 224 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ad8…b8dbbacked Greet Minnen62c150$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576051.7%31 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9e5…b040backed Janice Tjen35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502466.7%16 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Janice Tjen35c142.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.951,15844.4%514 W · 644 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Janice Tjen34c142$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.287,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffef…dabfbacked Greet Minnen62c141$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5815754.8%86 W · 71 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Janice Tjen36c135.45$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.563,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Greet Minnen74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.141,28760.7%781 W · 506 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Janice Tjen23c132$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.11,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Greet Minnen61c126$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.1447552.4%249 W · 226 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Janice Tjen43c124.9$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5585348.7%415 W · 438 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Janice Tjen50c120.18$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010232.4%33 W · 69 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18a7…206cbacked Janice Tjen38c120$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.485637.7%323 W · 533 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Janice Tjen35c114.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4032147%151 W · 170 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2965…0dedbacked Janice Tjen34c111.24$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8258539.5%231 W · 354 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250f…4fc6backed Janice Tjen43c110.85$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2317131.6%54 W · 117 L-21.0wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-28.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa6df…588cbacked Greet Minnen62c106$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2813860.9%84 W · 54 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed Greet Minnen62c101$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3826457.6%152 W · 112 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.