MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12cc99da2df28b5639daf403a4f78e3f0448f973293dde982fc972339663ed9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 51c | 8,144$4,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,005.7 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 49c | 5,940$2,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,931.93 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 40c | 2,062$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.51 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 59c | 1,271$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.99 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 49c | 1,081$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.83 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 51c | 1,039$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.96 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 61c | 863.99$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.04 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 614.44$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 49c | 607.51$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.68 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3afb…0004backed Over | 49c | 605.14$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.52 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 49c | 604.63$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.27 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 58c | 508.47$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.47 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 41c | 480.78$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.66 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 50c | 480.75$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.38 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 28c | 357$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 41c | 275$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef93…9f0dbacked Over | 29c | 108.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 99.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 36c | 95.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 44c | 91.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 21c | 80.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Over | 52c | 57.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 150 | 37.3%56 W · 94 L | -15.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 49c | 43.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 49c | 41.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…cc01backed Under | 71c | 40.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Over | 42c | 40.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda1…7b5ebacked Over | 79c | 37.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…26b9backed Over | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb0…c9f8backed Under | 71c | 27.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…5c32backed Under | 71c | 27.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b0…687ebacked Under | 71c | 27.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 67cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf1…796ebacked Under | 71c | 26.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 43c | 25.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 78c | 24.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be3…27a5backed Over | 69c | 21.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.