MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c96b9256af7cba39ed17f262b1b09802a0276c27c02fd8258bc0b03bbb9e9b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 70c | 6,082$4,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,230.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 23c | 4,686$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,605.89 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 54c | 1,810$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.83 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…e736backed Over | 46c | 1,031$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.23 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 70c | 857.14$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 56c | 741.04$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.48 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 49c | 399.99$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.81 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 45c | 399.56$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.66 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 362.66$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.57 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…52d1backed Over | 44c | 299.01$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…f325backed Under | 54c | 253.51$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.61 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 245.42$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.08 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 24c | 205$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 29c | 188$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.48 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 30c | 158.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 71c | 126$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…cf33backed Under | 24c | 109.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 76c | 109$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 50c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 98.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under | 29c | 94.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Under | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Over | 19c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Over | 45c | 63.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 39c | 51.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 43c | 44.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 60c | 44.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 39c | 38.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e66…0fa6backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5be3…27a5backed Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 54c | 30.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 62c | 28.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 46c | 28.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 57c | 27.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed Under | 56c | 26.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 56c | 21.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.