MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50fb61e83d2e0f40fc4ec43365d350759161e6d8934cc92839c637c92ebbf497
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers | 25c | 4,423$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.93 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 4,258$3,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Detroit Tigers | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 974.19$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.74 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 559.85$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.69 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Detroit Tigers | 29c | 499.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 489.61$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.19 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Detroit Tigers | 34c | 461.09$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.85 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b3…49f8backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 453.39$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.15 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Detroit Tigers | 32c | 310.75$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 302.65$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.38 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd633…8c3fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 75c | 146.19$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Detroit Tigers | 23c | 144$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 123.56$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Detroit Tigers | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6a…cbfbbacked Detroit Tigers | 31c | 97.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbe…1f4abacked Detroit Tigers | 27c | 78.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 66.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Detroit Tigers | 25c | 62.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Detroit Tigers | 27c | 60.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Detroit Tigers | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Detroit Tigers | 26c | 43.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 42.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 36.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…4930backed Detroit Tigers | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 72c | 29.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 25.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.