MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7792b213bf1a256a2d1275d3307ae48a5dbd076d2ebacd92edd8e248732de01d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 53c | 3,770$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,771.88 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 48c | 2,084$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.16 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 53c | 1,659$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.98 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 68c | 1,618$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 48c | 1,600$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 1,571$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.71 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 47c | 1,117$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.21 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 39c | 825.22$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.08 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 52c | 775.98$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.51 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Under | 48c | 502.3$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.2 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 42c | 476$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.08 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 48c | 372.99$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.06 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 64c | 338.75$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.14 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 283.93$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 219.89$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.51 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 40c | 219$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.4 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…b6bebacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 54c | 194.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 25c | 180.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb035…d989backed Under | 47c | 148.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 145.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 24c | 115.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Under | 24c | 115.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 112.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 66c | 95.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Over | 30c | 94.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 54c | 85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e66…0fa6backed Over | 48c | 84.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 46c | 79.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 33c | 78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 42c | 73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 70.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Under | 49c | 66.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed Under | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7751…991dbacked Over | 50c | 56.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 28c | 44.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 38c | 43.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Over | 62c | 43.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 47c | 41.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Over | 55c | 36.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…07d7backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 54c | 28.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 47c | 28.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Under | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 247 | 49%121 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc50…7fdebacked Over | 54c | 21.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ec…3630backed Under | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…af18backed Under | 58c | 18.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.