South American Leagues · resolved market
Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Unión: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13132ea6d7c0be737e7673fdad4f94ced300cc3a2f6cc9cbeb160c61c5de60b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed Over | 63c | 26,357$16,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,754.67 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 37c | 4,461$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650.48 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 37c | 4,000$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480 | 248 | 55.2%137 W · 111 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 37c | 3,018$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.72 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 37c | 3,000$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 37c | 1,750$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.5 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 37c | 1,500$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 37c | 1,219$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.32 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 39c | 1,189$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.55 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Under | 37c | 962.2$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.01 | 230 | 57.4%132 W · 98 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 288 | 51.7%149 W · 139 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 230 | 56.5%130 W · 100 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 37c | 450$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 249 | 56.6%141 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 213 | 58.7%125 W · 88 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 37c | 337$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.69 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 37c | 337$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.69 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 37c | 337$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.69 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 37c | 250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 216 | 57.9%125 W · 91 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 37c | 250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 203 | 60.6%123 W · 80 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Under | 37c | 250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 66c | 224.8$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 37c | 218.66$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.87 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 37c | 180$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…aee9backed Under | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Under | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 134 | 65.7%88 W · 46 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 37c | 129.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 44c | 124.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 118.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f04…4e5fbacked Under | 37c | 111.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1068…84e1backed Under | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 54c | 97.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Under | 37c | 86.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2a…4e1fbacked Under | 37c | 74.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 64c | 58.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed Under | 37c | 52.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…8f42backed Under | 37c | 47.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed Under | 36c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 65c | 35.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 30c | 34.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Under | 47c | 29.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…0425backed Over | 71c | 29.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 37c | 29.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa93…a0c9backed Over | 74c | 20.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…cb8ebacked Over | 64c | 18.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 62c | 18.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 62c | 18.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Over | 62c | 18.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Unión: O/U 1.5this page
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Unión: O/U 2.5Over won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Unión: O/U 3.5Under won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Unión: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Estudiantes de La Plata (-1.5)CA Unión won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.