Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x134f5bcfa8182a06dce7c78d7a712c31f74c83f19e9c78e9c2c8d52649500c13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 73c | 837.43$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.8 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 30c | 293$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.61 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7014…cf13backed Yes | 28c | 180.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 48c | 146.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 133.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 49c | 110.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 30c | 98.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 96.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 53c | 87.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 87.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 24c | 85.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8530…2710backed Yes | 16c | 82.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 55c | 80.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 48c | 80.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 29c | 69.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed Yes | 21c | 64.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 62.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 61.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 22c | 58.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 63c | 58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 30c | 57.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 49c | 56.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 54.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 37c | 54.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 62c | 52.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 47.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f02…baadbacked Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 36c | 35.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 41c | 35.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 35.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 50c | 33.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 50c | 32.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 32.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 30.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 29.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 54c | 29.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 54c | 29.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked No | 54c | 27.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 68c | 25.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 53c | 23.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 57c | 22.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 22.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 45c | 22.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed No | 61c | 21.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 64c | 20.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 54c | 19.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 69c | 17.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 67c | 15.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…293cbacked No | 70c | 14.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.