CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs Tricked (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1: Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14223d43a25e897fd353a81518390b38b4ef5c5a074125579d73eb844a3e4c9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 9INEof 9INE, Tricked
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,899 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c59…3887backed Tricked | 40c | 6,214$2,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,488.2 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed 9INE | 63c | 2,508$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.69 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Tricked | 35c | 1,842$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.23 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed 9INE | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 316 | 42.1%133 W · 183 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed 9INE | 62c | 1,228$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.71 | 567 | 32.5%184 W · 383 L | -30.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed 9INE | 62c | 1,082$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.78 | 1,579 | 29.7%469 W · 1,110 L | -86.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked 9INE | 57c | 1,056$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.07 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed 9INE | 64c | 992.32$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.85 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed 9INE | 56c | 953.92$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.3 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…9ef3backed Tricked | 37c | 638.75$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.72 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…6bc7backed 9INE | 67c | 570.14$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.14 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Tricked | 31c | 559.97$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.15 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Tricked | 42c | 546.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 593 | 43.2%256 W · 337 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Tricked | 36c | 524.72$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 1,623 | 44.9%728 W · 895 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed Tricked | 39c | 518.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 442 | 44.1%195 W · 247 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Tricked | 35c | 514.8$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.18 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed 9INE | 66c | 506.98$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.64 | 468 | 43.4%203 W · 265 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…e294backed Tricked | 37c | 499.99$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…c913backed Tricked | 21c | 486.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Tricked | 33c | 423.86$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.87 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Tricked | 32c | 391.33$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.62 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed 9INE | 80c | 381$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 275 | 56.4%155 W · 120 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed 9INE | 66c | 369.72$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.25 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed 9INE | 67c | 354.49$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.38 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed 9INE | 68c | 348.06$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.44 | 168 | 29.2%49 W · 119 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2212backed 9INE | 71c | 343.84$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked 9INE | 64c | 286$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.51 | 543 | 46.2%251 W · 292 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed 9INE | 67c | 262.98$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.13 | 380 | 37.4%142 W · 238 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…de5fbacked Tricked | 43c | 234.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed 9INE | 64c | 210$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.96 | 463 | 44.5%206 W · 257 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed 9INE | 64c | 208.56$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.26 | 447 | 43.8%196 W · 251 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Tricked | 34c | 203.36$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…de83backed 9INE | 67c | 203$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Tricked | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 328 | 44.5%146 W · 182 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed 9INE | 62c | 192$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.18 | 292 | 44.5%130 W · 162 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tricked | 34c | 192$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca82…fcfebacked 9INE | 59c | 191.1$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 149 | 71.8%107 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Tricked | 18c | 183.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Tricked | 32c | 179.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 249 | 39.8%99 W · 150 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tricked | 12c | 153.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb61…2730backed 9INE | 67c | 148.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed 9INE | 67c | 148.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked 9INE | 59c | 133.69$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed 9INE | 67c | 129.05$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Tricked | 33c | 118$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Tricked | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ad…6d0ebacked Tricked | 41c | 114.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 52cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8945…640bbacked Tricked | 33c | 101.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 262 | 57.6%151 W · 111 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed 9INE | 60c | 91.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 284 | 34.9%99 W · 185 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Tricked | 32c | 88.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -14.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…1afdbacked 9INE | 67c | 86.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked 9INE | 65c | 85.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 335 | 39.4%132 W · 203 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…49dabacked 9INE | 66c | 84.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed 9INE | 66c | 84.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked 9INE | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 667 | 53.1%354 W · 313 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e7…a447backed 9INE | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81c…0a81backed Tricked | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Tricked | 39c | 65.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 432 | 39.1%169 W · 263 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Tricked | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 402 | 47.8%192 W · 210 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe46a…f06abacked Tricked | 33c | 60.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…1d66backed Tricked | 27c | 57.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…6326backed 9INE | 66c | 53.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f50…e59ebacked 9INE | 67c | 53.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed 9INE | 67c | 52.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed 9INE | 66c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | -33.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Tricked | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 392 | 37.2%146 W · 246 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Tricked | 29c | 49.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f9…0975backed 9INE | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked 9INE | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed 9INE | 66c | 41.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…bf4bbacked 9INE | 64c | 37.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 323 | 51.4%166 W · 157 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked 9INE | 70c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 601 | 47.4%285 W · 316 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad4…83b8backed Tricked | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a2…d591backed 9INE | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e97…1481backed 9INE | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…3ca0backed 9INE | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0adc…c214backed 9INE | 75c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed 9INE | 73c | 19.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 807 | 44.6%360 W · 447 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57fb…1336backed 9INE | 77c | 16.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…5052backed 9INE | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: 9INE vs Tricked (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1: Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: 9INE vs Tricked - Map 1 Winner9INE won
- Counter-Strike: 9INE vs Tricked - Map 2 Winner9INE won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: 9INE (-1.5) vs Tricked (+1.5)9INE won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.