MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x142e7bfeef711c7be58e0cdd1a92e69b12a26fe5ca70631222b020838c3faf6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 7,075$3,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,716.61 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 58c | 3,025$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.42 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 58c | 2,709$1,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575.55 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…8322backed Under | 44c | 1,137$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 47c | 808.61$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.19 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 2c | 682.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 64c | 349.27$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.79 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 24c | 345.5$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.21 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 32c | 319.69$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 42c | 291.8$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.18 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Under | 77c | 291$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.07 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 277.33$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.73 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 40c | 265.1$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 43c | 263.85$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.91 | 180 | 56.1%101 W · 79 L | +11.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 57c | 262.29$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.28 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 51c | 193.29$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.71 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 68c | 180$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 36c | 176.58$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.19 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 37c | 173$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 65c | 163.81$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.61 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 32c | 102.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 47c | 96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Under | 55c | 79.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 66c | 73.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Over | 42c | 49.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Over | 42c | 49.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed35…84fbbacked Over | 41c | 41.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 35c | 41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 32c | 39.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 70c | 39.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 55c | 37.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 44c | 33.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Over | 40c | 33.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Under | 67c | 32.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Under | 61c | 30.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 86 | 69.8%60 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3537…3419backed Under | 59c | 29.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 34c | 29.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b92…2241backed Under | 49c | 27.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…3da2backed Under | 49c | 27.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 66c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 59c | 25.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…d45bbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…185fbacked Under | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82d…7882backed Under | 74c | 14.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.