MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aa1bd6e34cdbb5b7755cc14abb1ba950f26e0eae9c8d094f6b3d65a1575cffd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets | 40c | 1,460$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.71 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 1,162$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.35 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Detroit Tigers | 59c | 1,089$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.47 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 43c | 579.78$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.99 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Detroit Tigers | 60c | 558.13$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.88 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 36c | 475.96$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 78c | 465$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.2 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 39c | 460.61$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.97 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed New York Mets | 39c | 287.02$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.08 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Detroit Tigers | 53c | 164.18$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.83 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Mets | 62c | 152$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Mets | 44c | 149$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.44 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…eb78backed New York Mets | 40c | 130.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +162%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Detroit Tigers | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed New York Mets | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked New York Mets | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets | 45c | 98.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Detroit Tigers | 44c | 91.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked New York Mets | 41c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Detroit Tigers | 47c | 85.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Detroit Tigers | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Detroit Tigers | 41c | 73.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Detroit Tigers | 60c | 67.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed New York Mets | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked New York Mets | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked New York Mets | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a11…9282backed New York Mets | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 313 | 53%166 W · 147 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Detroit Tigers | 57c | 44.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed New York Mets | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked New York Mets | 62c | 37.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets | 46c | 33.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Detroit Tigers | 54c | 30.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked New York Mets | 33c | 30.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 180 | 56.1%101 W · 79 L | +11.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Detroit Tigers | 68c | 26.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed New York Mets | 44c | 24.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Detroit Tigers | 62c | 23.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Detroit Tigers | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.