Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 80°F or higher on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x143f998a63aa0cc784e5cf89e8d7e6634b3a5a2a7c8136b0839397f5e9018cf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 15c | 543$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 50c | 299.55$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…8190backed Yes | 60c | 271.35$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.53 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 49c | 270.83$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.72 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 43c | 260.33$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.12 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed No | 40c | 205.39$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 15c | 179.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed No | 50c | 175.3$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 21c | 139.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 63c | 132.17$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 53c | 124.72$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.16 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 117.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 49c | 112$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 38c | 95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 75c | 95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5d…9593backed Yes | 53c | 94.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 54c | 89.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 66c | 85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 34c | 85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…8f51backed No | 58c | 81.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a8…1b2bbacked Yes | 65c | 77.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 75.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…34bdbacked Yes | 67c | 74.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed Yes | 52c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 77c | 64.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 38c | 63.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 52c | 62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 42c | 59.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf558…b2cbbacked Yes | 50c | 58.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 61c | 53.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 57c | 51.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…583fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…e84fbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…2d98backed Yes | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 49c | 47.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…fafdbacked No | 52c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4953…43e2backed No | 45c | 45.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 37.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 43c | 37.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…e14fbacked Yes | 44c | 34.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 49c | 32.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbe…c9e4backed No | 36c | 32.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 31.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a21…8bb0backed No | 60c | 31.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 43c | 30.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 53c | 28.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 52c | 28.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 59c | 28.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…5842backed Yes | 40c | 26.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 42c | 24.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 46c | 22.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 46c | 21.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf357…10b6backed Yes | 64c | 21.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…c6d8backed Yes | 74c | 19.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe0…64b7backed Yes | 63c | 19.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4936…6679backed Yes | 58c | 18.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa56b…06b7backed No | 63c | 16.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 80°F or higher on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 61°F or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.