MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x144f02397db01c9e727906cb8dd13fc8579a478b3a39d25b89e910a830eaea35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 11,628$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 11,491$6,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,887.47 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 10,589$6,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,564.38 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 3,429$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.89 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Atlanta Braves | 43c | 2,598$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.06 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Atlanta Braves | 44c | 2,499$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.56 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 2,266$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.58 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 1,800$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.21 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 1,705$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 1,624$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.05 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 1,170$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.1 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Atlanta Braves | 44c | 909.09$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 787.65$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.49 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 692.06$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.34 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 679.97$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.71 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 615$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.58 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked Atlanta Braves | 44c | 568.18$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 440.48$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 422.54$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.97 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 57c | 386.79$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.47 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 354.55$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 350.79$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.47 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 348.83$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 310.95$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.32 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Atlanta Braves | 27c | 287.91$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 236$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.48 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Atlanta Braves | 43c | 234.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.26 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 174.48$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 158$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 150.09$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 117.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Atlanta Braves | 50c | 86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 85.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…d381backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 82.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe951…e71ebacked Atlanta Braves | 43c | 76.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Atlanta Braves | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…bb4ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 55.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 50.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Atlanta Braves | 49c | 47.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 46.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Atlanta Braves | 43c | 42.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 34.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 31.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 26.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 25.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f8…e0f3backed Atlanta Braves | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 21.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.