Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
North Carolina vs. San Diego State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1478397718dbbbeed37a4136b1e30b341bf97ae02006c408299693d68f80a29b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- North Carolinaof North Carolina, San Diego State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $226,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $226,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $226,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4259…936fbacked San Diego State | 36c | 97,864$34,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,946.51 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked North Carolina | 64c | 60,356$38,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,730.51 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed San Diego State | 23c | 46,725$10,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,720.23 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a5…f9babacked North Carolina | 66c | 27,273$18,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,272.73 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked North Carolina | 65c | 21,000$13,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,280 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…b0d0backed San Diego State | 35c | 20,787$7,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,264.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa47a…fd11backed North Carolina | 71c | 17,769$12,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,231.08 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed San Diego State | 34c | 13,347$4,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,551.69 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed North Carolina | 65c | 9,456$6,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,309.66 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked North Carolina | 66c | 2,920$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.91 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…5fe9backed North Carolina | 69c | 2,812$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.25 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed North Carolina | 65c | 2,514$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4498…06a8backed North Carolina | 66c | 2,045$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed San Diego State | 1c | 1,734$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0b…9e5cbacked San Diego State | 34c | 1,680$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.1 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed North Carolina | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee5…10c7backed San Diego State | 35c | 790.33$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…bcefbacked North Carolina | 66c | 757.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.58 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…9d49backed North Carolina | 66c | 757.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked San Diego State | 27c | 741.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…7bb6backed North Carolina | 66c | 657.57$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef9…35cfbacked North Carolina | 80c | 622$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.4 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked North Carolina | 66c | 606.06$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.06 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…68ddbacked San Diego State | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked San Diego State | 35c | 499.98$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed San Diego State | 35c | 493.02$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.7 | 168 | 42.3%71 W · 97 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed North Carolina | 71c | 348.46$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.56 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed San Diego State | 36c | 320.64$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.68 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed San Diego State | 35c | 309$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.15 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked North Carolina | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed North Carolina | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked North Carolina | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed North Carolina | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked San Diego State | 34c | 293.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked San Diego State | 35c | 285.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked North Carolina | 65c | 262$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8053…2a8ebacked San Diego State | 9c | 233.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed San Diego State | 19c | 204$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked San Diego State | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked North Carolina | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…12a3backed North Carolina | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked North Carolina | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…7726backed San Diego State | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked North Carolina | 65c | 116.92$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked North Carolina | 63c | 114.05$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…3476backed San Diego State | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed San Diego State | 34c | 109.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked San Diego State | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed North Carolina | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked San Diego State | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 459 | 53.8%247 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…d072backed San Diego State | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…47afbacked North Carolina | 66c | 95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…1eedbacked San Diego State | 19c | 85.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…fec6backed San Diego State | 35c | 85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed San Diego State | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed North Carolina | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3442…bee5backed San Diego State | 35c | 68.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3d…bf10backed North Carolina | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…1730backed San Diego State | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe56f…3914backed North Carolina | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…a6afbacked San Diego State | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked North Carolina | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed North Carolina | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed North Carolina | 66c | 36.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked North Carolina | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x261a…0565backed North Carolina | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed North Carolina | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.