South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Barracas Central end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x153b83fafe47e0da89ea34b8351e8d176fc3697e0d2ecb67b98dae2dcd1041e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 5c | 2,094$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.37 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 952.89$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.1 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 18c | 880$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.86 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 41c | 722.74$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.69 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 59c | 612.81$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.93 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb90…8dd8backed No | 8c | 430$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -92.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…f128backed Yes | 33c | 336.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.44 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 15c | 293$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked No | 13c | 263$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 11c | 257$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked No | 12c | 210$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…c8d1backed No | 70c | 170.82$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 10c | 152.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 187 | 42.2%79 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 21c | 147.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…c1f1backed No | 78c | 120.16$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 33c | 107.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked No | 12c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 30c | 78.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…068dbacked No | 70c | 78.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Yes | 22c | 75.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa580…a6febacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 73c | 60.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 67c | 59.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 32c | 56.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 77c | 51.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 62c | 45.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc75c…86d0backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6baf…e76bbacked Yes | 31c | 39.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 38.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…9e5fbacked Yes | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e3cabacked Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 34cpaid | +126.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x635f…6be6backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…504fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a16…5b54backed No | 70c | 25.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae72…7437backed No | 70c | 18.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 69c | 18.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…3544backed No | 76c | 15.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Barracas Central end in a draw?this page
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-03-01?No won
- Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-03-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.