TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Spurs: O/U 245.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,827
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,776

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,827 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a32…0086backed Over45c4,636$2,086 inLost-$2,086.111,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under54c3,100$1,678 inWon+$1,421.689,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over47c2,035$950 inLost-$950.054,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Under79c1,128$896 inWon+$232.232,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Over5c858.4$43 inLost-$42.9239018.2%71 W · 319 L+27.6wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8857…f34ebacked Over8c800$65 inLost-$65224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-49.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked Over4c750$30 inLost-$29.513228.8%38 W · 94 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under53c527$279 inWon+$248.232,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Under55c340$187 inWon+$15362347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Under55c330$182 inWon+$148.543052.3%225 W · 205 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under55c284.02$156 inWon+$127.648,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over29c280.99$82 inLost-$81.563,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over46c260.87$120 inLost-$12066046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under54c260.87$141 inWon+$1202,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb74d…9b2abacked Over9c234.86$21 inLost-$21.14568.9%5 W · 51 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over40c208.14$83 inLost-$83.2667921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under55c199.32$110 inWon+$89.691,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Over56c196.43$110 inLost-$11071044.6%317 W · 393 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under51c179$91 inWon+$87.712,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under55c167$92 inWon+$75.154,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Under54c130$70 inWon+$59.81,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over48c100$48 inLost-$47.52,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over46c100$46 inLost-$4635739.8%142 W · 215 L-25.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Under55c95.58$53 inWon+$43.0111158.6%65 W · 46 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over44c90.91$40 inLost-$402,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f9…5526backed Under54c76$41 inWon+$34.967651.3%39 W · 37 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Under55c66$36 inWon+$29.750648%243 W · 263 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Over54c55.56$30 inLost-$3051651.2%264 W · 252 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Under65c50.86$33 inWon+$17.611,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under55c48$26 inWon+$21.63,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over45c44.3$20 inLost-$19.7193849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under55c44$24 inWon+$19.81,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc86f…341dbacked Over46c38$17 inLost-$17.482937.9%11 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Under53c33$17 inWon+$15.5134645.7%158 W · 188 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5768…a918backed Over47c33$16 inLost-$15.51520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Under55c27.27$15 inWon+$12.2749852.4%261 W · 237 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Under57c20$11 inWon+$8.663745.8%292 W · 345 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15a3…718ebacked Under54c19.23$10 inWon+$8.8511351.3%58 W · 55 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.