NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Spurs: O/U 242.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd171c221fef5d7174235930a476043ae65975582e41e7c7b96ac3a6aea6eda49

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $103,230
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $106,787

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,230 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over	53c	34,809$18,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18,349.73	874	51.5%450 W · 424 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	48c	27,487$13,316 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,170.47	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Under	47c	21,000$9,870 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,130	596	53.4%318 W · 278 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cae…a00abacked Over	53c	19,079$10,045 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,045.11	44	65.9%29 W · 15 L	+5.9wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3080…5f29backed Under	48c	10,000$4,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,200	23	69.6%16 W · 7 L	+4.4wins	+0.19per pick	50cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over	49c	7,698$3,745 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,745.4	691	49.1%339 W · 352 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaba0…3153backed Over	50c	5,715$2,858 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,857.55	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	50cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over	50c	5,632$2,811 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,811.34	331	50.8%168 W · 163 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Under	54c	3,300$1,777 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,522.73	112	42%47 W · 65 L	-10.1wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked Under	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,500	94	51.1%48 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	50c	2,416$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,215.57	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8857…f34ebacked Over	4c	2,200$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Over	52c	1,923$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	158	49.4%78 W · 80 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	46c	1,794$820 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$974.44	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Under	49c	1,612$790 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$822.12	381	48.6%185 W · 196 L	-15.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over	53c	1,415$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb74d…9b2abacked Over	8c	1,200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	56	8.9%5 W · 51 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Over	50c	972$486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$486	334	47.9%160 W · 174 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Over	7c	800$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	158	7%11 W · 147 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked Over	4c	750$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	132	28.8%38 W · 94 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under	47c	600$282 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$318	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	47c	596$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315.88	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Over	55c	545.45$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	357	49.6%177 W · 180 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	47c	500$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53b0…4daabacked Over	54c	370.41$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.02	84	48.8%41 W · 43 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	57c	328.04$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.66	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	43c	308.04$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.46	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Over	6c	273.19$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.39	390	18.2%71 W · 319 L	+27.6wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+62.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under	47c	271.39$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.99	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed Over	52c	271.32$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.09	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under	47c	200$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106	61	54.1%33 W · 28 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15a3…718ebacked Under	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	113	51.3%58 W · 55 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4f…5c00backed Over	54c	186.04$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.44	90	51.1%46 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under	46c	155.12$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.76	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	46c	148.15$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under	46c	125.59$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.48	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	24c	125$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.5	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb81d…c6c0backed Under	46c	113$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.02	93	60.2%56 W · 37 L	+10.4wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc63b…f88ebacked Over	78c	100$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7690…dfcebacked Under	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	236	44.1%104 W · 132 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd851…9305backed Under	47c	85$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.05	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under	47c	80.83$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.84	874	53.3%466 W · 408 L	+19.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd207…c366backed Over	54c	74.07$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	191	50.3%96 W · 95 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a9f…c2a6backed Over	54c	74.07$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	75	50.7%38 W · 37 L	-4.4wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	51c	65$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.15	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over	56c	60$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	1,151	53.7%618 W · 533 L	-41.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68e0…a3a6backed Under	46c	60$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.4	56	50%28 W · 28 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	47c	59.6$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.59	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83fc…13ccbacked Under	49c	55.12$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.11	126	54%68 W · 58 L	+6.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	47c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.5	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd26c…fc57backed Over	53c	46$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.38	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77ec…4f9cbacked Over	53c	45$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.85	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2579…d6cbbacked Over	53c	43$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.79	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf21a…0751backed Over	54c	42$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.68	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	+4.0wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7eb3…0710backed Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	139	57.6%80 W · 59 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x72ea…d4f2backed Under	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	120	52.5%63 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Under	54c	37.13$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.08	379	49.3%187 W · 192 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Over	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a7…261bbacked Over	54c	37$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8204…61d9backed Over	53c	36$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.08	48	50%24 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb8b…d1dfbacked Over	47c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc61d…ca38backed Over	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9db…ab38backed Over	54c	29$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.66	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Under	49c	28.3$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.53	620	47.3%293 W · 327 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91dc…9dcebacked Over	56c	26.79$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-5.7wins	-0.25per pick	55cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under	46c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x691b…d267backed Over	49c	24.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	49c	22.2$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1315…d32ebacked Over	53c	22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.66	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6995…c072backed Over	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-4.6wins	-0.25per pick	48cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7f1a…ad50backed Over	53c	19$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Jazz vs. Spurs: O/U 242.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event