NBA · resolved market

Spread: Spurs (-17.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7595b25187eaa0ee070dfa1db6440dc18f31bfc914453823a775624a1396f60

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Spurs, Jazz
Resolved: Dec 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,044
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $4,237

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,044 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Jazz	54c	1,039$565 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$474.07	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Jazz	62c	841.57$521 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$320.21	156	53.8%84 W · 72 L	+5.9wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45d5…47efbacked Spurs	47c	756$354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.45	106	42.5%45 W · 61 L	-6.4wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Spurs	38c	549.69$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.38	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs	39c	426.52$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.81	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Spurs	44c	299.97$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.99	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Jazz	61c	250.4$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.5	184	40.8%75 W · 109 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs	46c	212.59$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.79	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Spurs	43c	138.11$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.99	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Spurs	44c	119.39$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.53	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a7…add9backed Jazz	56c	100.19$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.18	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Spurs	44c	93.58$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.84	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Jazz	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Jazz	54c	88.89$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.89	824	40.4%333 W · 491 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00fe…eff7backed Jazz	60c	88$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.2	85	52.9%45 W · 40 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x263f…c744backed Jazz	62c	82.26$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.26	103	57.3%59 W · 44 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed Jazz	62c	80.65$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.65	96	60.4%58 W · 38 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Jazz	55c	73.12$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.12	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Jazz	58c	69$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.98	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32eb…0c1bbacked Spurs	43c	67$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.81	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-6.6wins	-0.25per pick	52cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Jazz	54c	55.78$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.78	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Jazz	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Spurs	44c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e71…8913backed Spurs	40c	40$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-2.4wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Spurs	43c	33.6$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ae…bdfcbacked Spurs	40c	31$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Spurs	43c	31$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Jazz	56c	25$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	599	48.4%290 W · 309 L	-8.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18e7…ed30backed Jazz	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Spurs (-17.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event