NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80157f4800a52e5cb6d498379c26bfa4832bc8ffabbe9876706939b42b9a58ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Spurs, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Jazz | 51c | 25,000$12,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,250 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Spurs | 49c | 21,986$10,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,773.22 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Spurs | 50c | 7,666$3,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,833 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…0262backed Jazz | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Spurs | 47c | 5,000$2,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,324.91 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 53c | 4,126$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,937.98 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jazz | 58c | 3,180$1,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.44 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz | 55c | 2,726$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.57 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…cc8ebacked Spurs | 49c | 2,392$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Spurs | 42c | 2,032$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Spurs | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Jazz | 50c | 1,473$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.29 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Spurs | 41c | 1,424$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.04 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Jazz | 54c | 1,287$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.02 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 55c | 1,145$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.55 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Spurs | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Spurs | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Jazz | 58c | 900$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Spurs | 47c | 800$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Spurs | 47c | 741$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.27 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Spurs | 49c | 612$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0674…f212backed Jazz | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Spurs | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Spurs | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Spurs | 42c | 214.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Jazz | 54c | 212.96$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.96 | 293 | 46.4%136 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Jazz | 59c | 211.86$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Jazz | 52c | 185.5$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Spurs | 48c | 163.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.53 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Jazz | 50c | 160.18$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Jazz | 59c | 158.42$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…224dbacked Jazz | 59c | 149.97$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Jazz | 52c | 134.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Spurs | 48c | 127.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed Jazz | 58c | 119$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Jazz | 62c | 106.69$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…862dbacked Spurs | 52c | 100.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Jazz | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Spurs | 48c | 87.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Jazz | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Spurs | 44c | 79.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Jazz | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Spurs | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Jazz | 61c | 65.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Jazz | 58c | 63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…95ccbacked Spurs | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Jazz | 54c | 56.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jazz | 54c | 56.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Jazz | 50c | 50.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb346…3538backed Jazz | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Spurs | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Spurs | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Jazz | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Spurs | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Jazz | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 225 | 56.9%128 W · 97 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Jazz | 55c | 38.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Jazz | 61c | 36.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Spurs | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Spurs | 39c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 220 | 48.6%107 W · 113 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Spurs | 39c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed Spurs | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…e482backed Spurs | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Jazz | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked Spurs | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Jazz | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 381 | 52.8%201 W · 180 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Spurs | 38c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb8…85b9backed Jazz | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…af09backed Jazz | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…dc55backed Spurs | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Spurs | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Spurs | 47c | 24.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16e4…0641backed Jazz | 50c | 21.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…a17ebacked Jazz | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4584…fb0dbacked Spurs | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a13…271dbacked Jazz | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbd…6ffebacked Jazz | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f8…256ebacked Jazz | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-16.5)this page
- Isaiah Collier: Assists Over 6.5No won
- Jazz vs. SpursJazz won
- Jazz vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineJazz won
- Jazz vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Spurs: O/U 241.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Spurs: O/U 242.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Spurs: O/U 243.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Spurs: O/U 244.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Spurs: O/U 245.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Spurs: O/U 246.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Spurs: O/U 247.5Under won
- Spread: Spurs (-14.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Spurs (-17.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.