TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Spurs: O/U 243.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,408
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,741

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,408 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0352…3292backed Over51c12,616$6,392 inLost-$6,391.510158.4%59 W · 42 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3080…5f29backed Under51c10,000$5,100 inWon+$4,9002369.6%16 W · 7 L+4.4wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+38.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Under50c9,999$4,977 inWon+$5,022.61,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over50c7,712$3,856 inLost-$3,8562,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over50c4,960$2,458 inLost-$2,458.031,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under50c4,828$2,401 inWon+$2,426.469,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Under49c1,406$689 inWon+$717.2623850%119 W · 119 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Over51c1,203$613 inLost-$613.2835749.6%177 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over51c1,177$600 inLost-$600.272,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under52c1,042$542 inWon+$50050754.2%275 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under49c600$294 inWon+$3061,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Over51c376.7$192 inLost-$192.1238148.6%185 W · 196 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under49c365$179 inWon+$186.231,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaba0…3153backed Over48c308.33$148 inLost-$148837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under54c304.35$164 inWon+$1401,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0e9…5112backed Under50c300$150 inWon+$15021749.3%107 W · 110 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35af…44f3backed Over50c220$110 inLost-$11017953.6%96 W · 83 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under48c200$96 inWon+$10480744.1%356 W · 451 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…5ab9backed Under48c162$78 inWon+$84.2410143.6%44 W · 57 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Over52c120.19$62 inLost-$62.540952.1%213 W · 196 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8a3…a380backed Under48c88$42 inWon+$45.768644.2%38 W · 48 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under48c82.5$40 inWon+$42.92,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e44…3cefbacked Over52c42$22 inLost-$21.844148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe105…8a2dbacked Over52c41$21 inLost-$21.323961.5%24 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under49c40.27$20 inWon+$20.5593849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x243c…9ae0backed Over53c35.38$19 inLost-$18.7538347%180 W · 203 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98ae…2bfebacked Over52c35$18 inLost-$18.23250%16 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4d0…9b74backed Over52c35$18 inLost-$18.24353.5%23 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08a7…e161backed Over52c34$18 inLost-$17.684252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under48c25$12 inWon+$132,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x474b…c5b1backed Over53c23.23$12 inLost-$12.319050%45 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xede6…89c4backed Over52c22$11 inLost-$11.445056%28 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Over52c20.77$11 inLost-$10.842551.3%218 W · 207 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Over52c20.77$11 inLost-$10.841354%223 W · 190 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over51c20.2$10 inLost-$10.387453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.