NBA · resolved market

Spread: Spurs (-14.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81739bc21609c849952d087d0def9a961cba65909ea7d99f8287ac20a9d55337

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Spurs, Jazz
Resolved: Dec 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $93,534
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $93,790

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,534 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Jazz	51c	83,441$42,482 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40,958.96	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2faf…92dcbacked Spurs	49c	19,835$9,719 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,719	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Spurs	49c	15,210$7,453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,452.83	485	46.4%225 W · 260 L	-14.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x041c…d5eebacked Spurs	49c	10,204$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.6wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4370…61aebacked Spurs	49c	10,204$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57c9…e5c6backed Spurs	49c	8,163$4,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,000	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa25…05e8backed Spurs	50c	8,000$4,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,000	63	52.4%33 W · 30 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x587a…13b0backed Spurs	49c	6,122$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e8a…2d30backed Spurs	49c	6,122$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jazz	50c	4,463$2,240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,223.04	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd89e…35fabacked Spurs	50c	3,900$1,950 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,950	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Spurs	51c	986.41$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	767	46.4%356 W · 411 L	-16.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Jazz	51c	500$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x657c…0cc5backed Jazz	52c	384.6$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.61	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-14%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked Spurs	49c	383.67$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188	136	44.9%61 W · 75 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Spurs	6c	342.24$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.82	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Spurs	49c	333$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.17	160	53.1%85 W · 75 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Spurs	48c	305$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.4	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf60…f8d5backed Spurs	49c	255.1$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	98	44.9%44 W · 54 L	-5.0wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe666…14f5backed Jazz	68c	200$136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	+4.3wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed Jazz	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	40	30%12 W · 28 L	-6.1wins	-0.15per pick	45cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Jazz	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	685	42.6%292 W · 393 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Jazz	52c	162.79$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.14	381	52.8%201 W · 180 L	+18.2wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Spurs	50c	132$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.68	625	46.9%293 W · 332 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz	51c	103.92$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.92	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd420…df90backed Jazz	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	514	51.9%267 W · 247 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Jazz	51c	99.99$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	522	42.7%223 W · 299 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f0f…45c3backed Jazz	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.18per pick	57cpaid	+45.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jazz	54c	83$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.03	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3888…0755backed Spurs	49c	81.63$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	250	58.4%146 W · 104 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb3d…341abacked Spurs	47c	59.67$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Spurs	48c	56$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.88	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Spurs	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Jazz	52c	47.9$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.9	624	50%312 W · 312 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02ec…5412backed Jazz	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	273	59%161 W · 112 L	+8.5wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Spurs	48c	24.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Jazz	51c	19.7$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.65	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Spurs (-14.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event