NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15fd04e80bd74127441a0723c163c0acedef06c9f40b32b17a30d4d6486a2dce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Hawks, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb31…7b95backed Hawks | 27c | 736.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Timberwolves | 17c | 136.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…82a2backed Timberwolves | 70c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…f7f9backed Timberwolves | 68c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…4833backed Hawks | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f91…a01fbacked Hawks | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…def5backed Hawks | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…753bbacked Timberwolves | 66c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Timberwolves | 64c | 33.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9783…d484backed Timberwolves | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d41…6989backed Timberwolves | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c0…8ff8backed Timberwolves | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b92…3036backed Timberwolves | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…db85backed Timberwolves | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6831…08b7backed Timberwolves | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a2…90d5backed Timberwolves | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a4…7941backed Timberwolves | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfef4…409ebacked Timberwolves | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd92…1be3backed Timberwolves | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…d6c3backed Timberwolves | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1472…8635backed Timberwolves | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…5312backed Timberwolves | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c2…098ebacked Timberwolves | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…baafbacked Timberwolves | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…443ebacked Timberwolves | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e2…0528backed Timberwolves | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a7…8d8dbacked Timberwolves | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944b…34e8backed Timberwolves | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…11fabacked Timberwolves | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- CJ McCollum: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Hawks vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Over won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Naz Reid: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.