NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22480c59f389331ab7b9b10dfad65f35de6473425635595460e89a5c49c39d11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 14,143$7,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,363.39 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Hawks | 46c | 11,020$5,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,069 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Timberwolves | 57c | 9,938$5,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,273.51 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Hawks | 45c | 9,303$4,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,186.35 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Timberwolves | 59c | 7,587$4,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,114.03 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Hawks | 41c | 7,480$3,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,097.4 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…3ef9backed Hawks | 45c | 4,400$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Timberwolves | 55c | 3,017$1,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.55 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…9b3cbacked Hawks | 45c | 2,700$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215 | 203 | 55.2%112 W · 91 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 2,111$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.64 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Hawks | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Hawks | 46c | 1,670$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.2 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Hawks | 44c | 1,069$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.72 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…aeb9backed Hawks | 46c | 327$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.42 | 139 | 37.4%52 W · 87 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Timberwolves | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 39c | 290.76$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.13 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Hawks | 47c | 208.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 243 | 32.9%80 W · 163 L | -22.7wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Hawks | 42c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks | 43c | 168.82$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Timberwolves | 57c | 154.39$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Timberwolves | 54c | 151.31$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Hawks | 46c | 129.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 362 | 47.5%172 W · 190 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…bac6backed Hawks | 47c | 104.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 383 | 50.4%193 W · 190 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Hawks | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fad…374cbacked Hawks | 47c | 82.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Timberwolves | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Hawks | 47c | 58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Timberwolves | 67c | 44.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Timberwolves | 59c | 44.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…03c5backed Hawks | 46c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdf…b929backed Hawks | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Timberwolves | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Hawks | 47c | 33.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 29.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Hawks | 47c | 29.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- CJ McCollum: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Hawks vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Over won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Naz Reid: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.