NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4971d3a035b072832fc11dc2cba6bb8d04dc5ee36ff1303beb6483021e7e3155
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8764…604abacked Over | 49c | 40,052$19,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,250.67 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +14.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +47%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Under | 50c | 25,000$12,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,500 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Under | 53c | 16,492$8,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,740.7 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Over | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 4,320$2,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,162.27 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Over | 47c | 4,255$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255.32 | 389 | 46%179 W · 210 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Over | 47c | 3,602$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,905.23 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Under | 48c | 3,440$1,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651 | 316 | 44.6%141 W · 175 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 2,906$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.21 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Over | 47c | 2,349$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.94 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Under | 51c | 2,191$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.32 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…0efcbacked Over | 47c | 2,188$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.41 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Over | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029 | 220 | 55%121 W · 99 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 50c | 1,684$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.13 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 1,616$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.23 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 52c | 1,538$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.76 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…f708backed Over | 48c | 1,341$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.34 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Under | 52c | 1,341$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.34 | 267 | 55.8%149 W · 118 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 1,333$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Over | 47c | 1,277$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.6 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…7135backed Under | 48c | 1,222$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.57 | 212 | 50.5%107 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…85a9backed Under | 51c | 1,173$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598 | 314 | 55.1%173 W · 141 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 75c | 1,067$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.35 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 900$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 51c | 586.57$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.15 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 472.97$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.78 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Under | 51c | 435.29$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 49c | 416$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.84 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb93d…f0c4backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +8.8wins | +0.29per pick | 47cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Under | 16c | 344.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 220 | 44.5%98 W · 122 L | -14.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 293.75$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.33 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked Under | 52c | 272.24$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.56 | 290 | 55.5%161 W · 129 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 47c | 246.89$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.85 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 33c | 223.75$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 64c | 210.18$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.57 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…8809backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 51c | 161.16$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 49c | 157$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 50c | 150.91$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Over | 51c | 130$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Over | 48c | 118.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9351…ef0fbacked Over | 45c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 16c | 89.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 61.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…6ce2backed Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…a0b7backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 55c | 49.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd885…c666backed Over | 48c | 41.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 27c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 243 | 30.5%74 W · 169 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a8…8a9dbacked Under | 54c | 40.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 64c | 38.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x285d…f500backed Under | 32c | 37.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -6.7wins | -0.24per pick | 56cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…03c5backed Under | 52c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5acf…0df2backed Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Under | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Over | 64c | 17.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 80c | 13.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- CJ McCollum: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Hawks vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5Over won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Naz Reid: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.