NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fc3595c8857aaa25fa82cfd1dbfccc5b9b0159a9b181776b9a5962899c63612
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8764…604abacked Over | 47c | 47,577$22,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,988.94 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +14.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +47%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 28,958$15,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,154.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 52c | 7,843$4,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,040.6 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Under | 51c | 4,206$2,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,145 | 316 | 44.6%141 W · 175 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 50c | 4,004$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,004 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 53c | 2,972$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.2 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 54c | 2,340$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.85 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 187 | 47.1%88 W · 99 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Under | 52c | 1,944$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 45c | 1,650$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.08 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 53c | 1,337$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.51 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9569…27fdbacked Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Over | 65c | 624.16$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.9 | 151 | 41.1%62 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…2ed2backed Under | 20c | 293.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 244.86$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.33 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…1adfbacked Under | 52c | 188.35$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…7135backed Under | 52c | 160.71$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 212 | 50.5%107 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Under | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Under | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 268 | 24.6%66 W · 202 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Over | 47c | 146.01$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.38 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 52c | 116.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…b2b6backed Under | 54c | 95.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…8cb2backed Under | 52c | 77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…70c7backed Under | 52c | 49.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…be36backed Under | 52c | 38.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…717bbacked Under | 57c | 38.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Under | 57c | 36.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…36bbbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Under | 52c | 26.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 548 | 54.2%297 W · 251 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 52c | 20.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 239.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- CJ McCollum: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Dyson Daniels: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Dyson Daniels: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Hawks vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5Over won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Naz Reid: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.