TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
3DMAXof Liquid, 3DMAX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$857,211
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,114,020

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $857,211 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 283 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x63a5…8e33backed 3DMAX39c196,238$77,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119,151.763438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Liquid60c108,638$65,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,182.5622049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Liquid61c60,000$36,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,599.9783652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Liquid61c50,000$30,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,50011655.2%64 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed 3DMAX39c24,554$9,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,918.628552.9%45 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked 3DMAX39c24,431$9,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,794.044738.3%18 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Liquid64c10,855$6,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,965.4521655.1%119 W · 97 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x246b…fb5bbacked Liquid64c8,663$5,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,542.373762.2%23 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Liquid45c8,497$3,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,815.4339248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Liquid50c7,710$3,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,885.391,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed Liquid65c7,647$4,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,970.642147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed 3DMAX66c7,640$5,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,600.0312571.2%89 W · 36 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd572…c829backed Liquid79c6,701$5,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,285.79728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-60.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Liquid59c5,805$3,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,402.094,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed 3DMAX34c5,765$1,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,816.6132425.3%82 W · 242 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Liquid54c5,375$2,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,909.6149646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed 3DMAX32c5,000$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,424.9833452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Liquid62c4,914$3,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,068.561,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Liquid56c4,898$2,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,755.42,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Liquid64c4,728$3,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,017.063,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Liquid45c4,150$1,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,878.653,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64f7…afa6backed Liquid58c3,823$2,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,201.619852%51 W · 47 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b90…f361backed Liquid76c3,678$2,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,787.51428.6%4 W · 10 L-4.3wins-0.30per pick59cpaid-45.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked 3DMAX38c2,799$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,727.092,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd20f…2f35backed Liquid66c2,570$1,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,697.718750.6%44 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4e5…d034backed 3DMAX55c2,453$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.6413044.6%58 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed 3DMAX35c2,248$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,471.8921528.8%62 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed 3DMAX54c2,244$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.3846345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed Liquid66c2,143$1,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,414.1822444.2%99 W · 125 L-16.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Liquid49c2,121$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.881,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2555…5254backed Liquid9c1,991$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.684042.5%17 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked 3DMAX50c1,972$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.1135242.9%151 W · 201 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Liquid50c1,918$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.591,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed 3DMAX55c1,768$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.7946749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked 3DMAX35c1,688$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10529235.6%104 W · 188 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Liquid58c1,623$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.716,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff5…7bd9backed 3DMAX38c1,520$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.534344.2%19 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Liquid1c1,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202150.9%2 W · 213 L-1.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked 3DMAX41c1,500$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.9912148.8%59 W · 62 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed 3DMAX43c1,474$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.2941850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Liquid57c1,472$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.967,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed 3DMAX47c1,466$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.431,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Liquid44c1,365$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.0481843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Liquid46c1,344$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.4187047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed 3DMAX53c1,286$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.8213238.6%51 W · 81 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Liquid77c1,264$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.6638868.3%265 W · 123 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+3.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa56f…ee5fbacked 3DMAX38c1,261$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.812962.1%18 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed 3DMAX24c1,257$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.761,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed 3DMAX54c1,250$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.4637445.7%171 W · 203 L-29.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked 3DMAX51c1,229$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.571,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Liquid1c1,200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151973.6%7 W · 190 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-91.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…20b4backed 3DMAX41c1,176$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.049656.3%54 W · 42 L+10.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+27.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed 3DMAX55c1,150$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.4642651.6%220 W · 206 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed 3DMAX53c1,083$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.5251252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed 3DMAX36c961.6$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.4246340.8%189 W · 274 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed 3DMAX25c909.43$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.2948437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked 3DMAX51c903.99$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.9663541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked Liquid78c864.24$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.8939970.7%282 W · 117 L+38.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed 3DMAX39c850.93$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.781,37845.2%623 W · 755 L+17.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Liquid50c838.05$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.0488746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Liquid1c800$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101943.6%7 W · 187 L-0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa094…3f07backed 3DMAX43c786.26$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.6624942.2%105 W · 144 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed 3DMAX37c776.39$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.724944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04b…3ce0backed 3DMAX65c755.27$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.834837.5%18 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed 3DMAX33c745.65$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.645,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Liquid46c737.5$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.45,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadd4…15c2backed Liquid56c733.04$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.513036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Liquid39c727.14$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.143,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd705…fb7cbacked 3DMAX29c710.1$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.7532536%117 W · 208 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0636…c529backed Liquid46c700$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3226126.2%16 W · 45 L-9.7wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-21.6%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Liquid46c693.4$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.036154.1%33 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf437…ff9bbacked 3DMAX37c657.81$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.4229052.4%152 W · 138 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3bc…2f60backed 3DMAX30c635.52$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.915543.6%24 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Liquid29c620.03$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.922,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x421e…1e47backed Liquid31c618.45$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.729023.3%21 W · 69 L-9.4wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-32.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x17c1…a606backed Liquid77c600$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4621457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed 3DMAX43c583.48$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.264,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked 3DMAX74c571.87$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.3140253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Liquid72c561.76$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.4717042.9%73 W · 97 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed 3DMAX51c551.9$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.4325147.8%120 W · 131 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3c7…bf04backed 3DMAX53c536.05$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.093540%14 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe757…c161backed 3DMAX33c532.66$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.881936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255f…cd91backed 3DMAX55c531.01$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.48947.2%42 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Liquid43c513.27$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.465,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked 3DMAX35c505$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.332832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Liquid80c500$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40058961.3%361 W · 228 L-1.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x961a…aa6abacked 3DMAX21c489.11$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.7727548%132 W · 143 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x135f…528cbacked 3DMAX39c486.84$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.088232.9%27 W · 55 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed 3DMAX51c485.3$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.84235.7%15 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-30.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbe2b…20e4backed 3DMAX42c480.63$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.519635.4%34 W · 62 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked 3DMAX35c480.5$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.3353545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dea…e294backed 3DMAX33c460$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.235848.3%173 W · 185 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Liquid63c453.47$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.522,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Liquid63c443.84$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.0526037.3%97 W · 163 L-17.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-31.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed 3DMAX18c432.14$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.858755.9%328 W · 259 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea4b…9531backed Liquid64c418.58$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.072931%9 W · 20 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe4dd…4f27backed Liquid40c400$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16050947%239 W · 270 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12b1…092ebacked Liquid76c386.87$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.761643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick62cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed 3DMAX44c377.5$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.751,54733.9%524 W · 1,023 L-73.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed Liquid56c367.82$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.2413655.9%76 W · 60 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.