Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x172bf6ccb930cd6c785752365296f6e92c6900c1f17a99cb93f8d7e7e7945f55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 2,902$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 387.96$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.58 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 217.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 36c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.33 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 27c | 182.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 140.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 22c | 133$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 23c | 85.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 74.22$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 79c | 71.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 71.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 20c | 69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 24c | 67.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…7900backed Yes | 20c | 66.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 20c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 22c | 63.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 35c | 51.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 70c | 42.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 38.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 68c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 35.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 34c | 33.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 29.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 29.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 38c | 27.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 24.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 77c | 23.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 70c | 22.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 70c | 21.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 19.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 14.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 14.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.