Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f63d0b720b6ed8dcbd93800e1696c2df6c0b8c9a2f6d3abfa501324dd86e074
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3019…631ebacked Yes | 13c | 976.58$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.59 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 34c | 769.26$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.89 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 509.33$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.61 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 25c | 336.94$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.01 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 317.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 42c | 313$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.11 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 48c | 276.12$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 275.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 5c | 229.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.68 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 205.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 203.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.84 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 176.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 171.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.11 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 44c | 150.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 137.83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 135.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.07 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 34c | 124.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 11c | 121.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.32 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 17c | 110.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.98 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 109.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 24c | 101.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.68 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d7…7689backed No | 69c | 94.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 90$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 85.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 12c | 85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…083abacked Yes | 65c | 76.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 30c | 72.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 31c | 66.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 59.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 64c | 52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 67c | 45.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4681…583cbacked Yes | 32c | 44.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 56c | 43.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 60c | 41.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…7900backed Yes | 42c | 35.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 58c | 34.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 36c | 34.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…9d5dbacked Yes | 44c | 33.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ab…a53fbacked Yes | 63c | 31.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1e…5bb5backed No | 76c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 64c | 24.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 78c | 24.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 45c | 22.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 63c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 79c | 20.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 54c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 66c | 17.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.