Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87cb0ae5c9fe63d3aca87b3b2f3e2050a6bf9ac4a8125bf8a45f7cd08f7e62e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 2,284$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 25c | 1,012$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.61 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 999.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 30c | 600$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73c9…5eb1backed No | 70c | 547.73$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.28 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 21c | 499.93$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.78 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked No | 80c | 449.9$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.12 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 3c | 415.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 18c | 410.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 73c | 350$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 14c | 281.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 264.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 28c | 207.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 206$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ab…a53fbacked No | 72c | 188$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 25c | 182.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 79c | 157.62$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 150.78$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 150.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 15c | 149.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…0817backed No | 78c | 128.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed No | 67c | 123$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 17c | 121$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 27c | 119.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 12c | 105.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 20c | 95.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 29c | 85.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 69c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed No | 72c | 83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 17c | 81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 80.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 27c | 74.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 73c | 68.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 67c | 61.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 24c | 58.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 37c | 54.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 42.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…c72cbacked Yes | 41c | 41.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa067…0a3ebacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 32c | 39.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 38c | 39.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 72c | 35.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 37c | 35.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…4ccabacked No | 59c | 33.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 37c | 31.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 77c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 17.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 16.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 69c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.