Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8db883fa4645dced60c51d7c8e4221d59712f721a7ed3fc598ce4d2b6e4bed47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 25c | 1,045$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.77 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 864.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 649.61$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…0817backed No | 70c | 573.57$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 17c | 322.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 12c | 293.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 22c | 270.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 12c | 244.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 31c | 232.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3019…631ebacked Yes | 23c | 220.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 25c | 214.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 32c | 198.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 26c | 194.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 28c | 131.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 113.17$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 112.47$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 68c | 107.55$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 22c | 106.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 98.57$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 77c | 98.49$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 14c | 92.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 91.58$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 80c | 89.69$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 74c | 87.22$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 74c | 86.31$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 75.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 28c | 73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 72c | 69.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 75c | 64.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 30c | 62.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 20c | 59.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 28c | 58.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 57.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 80c | 46.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 33c | 45.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed Yes | 36c | 45.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 28c | 44.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 28c | 42.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 28c | 39.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 38.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 79c | 35.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 74c | 31.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…6cc3backed No | 71c | 28.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 24.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 72c | 19.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 76c | 19.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 71c | 16.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 14.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 14.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.