Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1742f0bab5340c75c3064d42f51e84167158bcc0c97b737f97409a37e608be1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 47c | 3,082$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,646.28 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 53c | 748.68$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.49 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 718.49$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.86 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 54c | 505.08$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.08 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 471$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.63 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 54c | 415$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.1 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed Yes | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 42c | 232.61$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.93 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked No | 55c | 220$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 214.02$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 53c | 203.28$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.06 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 182.55$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 40c | 150.34$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.46 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 150.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.31 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 65c | 150.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 39c | 145.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.32 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 62c | 139.93$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 53c | 134.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 125.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 125$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 41c | 123.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.95 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 123.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 35c | 112.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…7cc3backed No | 53c | 104$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdf…0ee4backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 46c | 93.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 55c | 91.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 36c | 87.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 46c | 81.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 61c | 69.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 41c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 40c | 57.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 44c | 56.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 38c | 51.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 56c | 49.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 40c | 49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 56c | 47.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 37c | 47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 60c | 44.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 58c | 44.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 43.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…8de9backed No | 64c | 41.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 40.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e09…9dc9backed Yes | 35c | 40.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 37c | 40.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 39.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 31c | 37.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21bd…ddc0backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 69c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…362bbacked Yes | 38c | 27.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 61c | 26.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…9a69backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 51c | 24.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…03e8backed No | 64c | 20.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 69c | 19.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 18.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.