Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc75a18ee420a3b07818cd04baa408692b5e1028959d6946b8b0d1d69f6fc407
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 34c | 1,261$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.75 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 764$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.17 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 24c | 580.57$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.36 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 556.81$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 53c | 363.6$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.84 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 217.65$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 194.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 36c | 155.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 35c | 153.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 22c | 146.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 37c | 125.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 125$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 121$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 107.57$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 106$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 69c | 84.07$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 79.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 74.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed Yes | 36c | 72.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 63c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 54c | 62.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 60c | 55.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 54.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 22c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 65c | 47.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 35c | 47.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 40c | 44.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9653…02abbacked No | 63c | 44.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9282…cf25backed No | 64c | 44.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 43.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 41.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 69c | 39.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2c…8099backed Yes | 37c | 38.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 37c | 35.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 67c | 35.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 32.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1e…b206backed Yes | 37c | 31.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 54c | 28.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 66c | 26.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…66f7backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 65c | 19.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e90…6303backed No | 62c | 17.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 16.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.