NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x175e02ec8148d2768672a256637046c14f69365b5ad23300f7157db9304d5339
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Celtics | 52c | 87,579$45,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,970.52 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Lakers | 47c | 45,467$21,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,576.5 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Celtics | 52c | 32,876$17,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,780.26 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Lakers | 48c | 30,000$14,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,400 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Lakers | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,800 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 48c | 10,992$5,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,287.11 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lakers | 48c | 8,000$3,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,840 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Celtics | 50c | 6,503$3,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,251.26 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfe…0736backed Lakers | 50c | 6,187$3,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,093.26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lakers | 48c | 4,890$2,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,347.2 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Celtics | 53c | 3,767$1,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.5 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Lakers | 54c | 3,183$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.67 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d0…6293backed Lakers | 53c | 2,640$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.2 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Celtics | 49c | 2,540$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.15 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Lakers | 48c | 2,456$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.16 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Celtics | 47c | 2,383$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.99 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Lakers | 48c | 1,352$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.98 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Celtics | 48c | 1,210$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.66 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Celtics | 53c | 1,038$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.74 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…fce3backed Lakers | 52c | 979.89$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.54 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Lakers | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers | 47c | 446$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.62 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Celtics | 48c | 241.95$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.33 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Celtics | 53c | 213.08$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.15 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Lakers | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Celtics | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Lakers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 361 | 43.5%157 W · 204 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Lakers | 52c | 192.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Lakers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Lakers | 52c | 148.65$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.3 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Lakers | 53c | 132.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -12.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2012…128fbacked Lakers | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Lakers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…b468backed Celtics | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Lakers | 49c | 53.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 218 | 38.1%83 W · 135 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Celtics | 50c | 41.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Lakers | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 154 | 43.5%67 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Celtics | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lakers | 48c | 27.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Celtics won
- Lakers vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.