NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dfb1f669d51d62d79696495bea39717e55bbee214e5d293449866b523484a16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Celtics | 56c | 4,994$2,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,211.37 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710a…a5d8backed Lakers | 48c | 4,300$2,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,064 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5442…6fa7backed Celtics | 52c | 4,300$2,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,064 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc96…8a0bbacked Celtics | 52c | 4,200$2,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2f…aa56backed Lakers | 48c | 4,200$2,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,016 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 44c | 3,634$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.96 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Lakers | 53c | 3,519$1,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.59 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Celtics | 47c | 2,990$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584.58 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Celtics | 47c | 2,781$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.33 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Lakers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…fce3backed Lakers | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Celtics | 51c | 859.91$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.49 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lakers | 49c | 843.04$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.03 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Lakers | 49c | 613$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.37 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f8…09f7backed Lakers | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Celtics | 53c | 609.73$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.76 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Celtics | 47c | 609.45$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.17 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Celtics | 51c | 588$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.12 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Celtics | 48c | 538.81$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Lakers | 43c | 517.99$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.74 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Lakers | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Lakers | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Lakers | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68f6…7742backed Celtics | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Lakers | 45c | 440$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 175 | 51.4%90 W · 85 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked Lakers | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Lakers | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Celtics | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Lakers | 48c | 235.58$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.08 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Lakers | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcada…f2a3backed Lakers | 47c | 206.45$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Lakers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Lakers | 44c | 198.74$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Celtics | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec5…9fe0backed Lakers | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 168 | 53%89 W · 79 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lakers | 49c | 176.25$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Celtics | 51c | 155$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.73 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Lakers | 49c | 110.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Lakers | 53c | 109.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Lakers | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Celtics | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Lakers | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Celtics | 46c | 79.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Celtics | 46c | 77.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Celtics | 44c | 76.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fd…7d56backed Celtics | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Lakers | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe651…4661backed Lakers | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Lakers | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Lakers | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86f6…eafebacked Celtics | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Celtics | 62c | 52.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…a297backed Lakers | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Lakers | 55c | 50.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Lakers | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Lakers | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Lakers | 55c | 47.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Lakers | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Celtics | 56c | 46.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Lakers | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7e1fbacked Lakers | 48c | 45.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6347…cdd5backed Lakers | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc75…88acbacked Lakers | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Lakers | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Lakers | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Lakers | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Lakers | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…8c81backed Lakers | 50c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Lakers | 46c | 32.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Celtics | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Celtics | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Lakers | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3559…f7edbacked Lakers | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Celtics | 49c | 26.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 245 | 52.7%129 W · 116 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Celtics | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Celtics | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb203…8e45backed Lakers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Lakers | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Celtics won
- Lakers vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.