TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,393
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,339

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,393 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7104…afefbacked Over58c7,676$4,450 inWon+$3,226.093073.3%22 W · 8 L+6.4wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+47.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Under50c6,585$3,292 inLost-$3,292.461,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under44c5,442$2,384 inLost-$2,384.089,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Over50c3,333$1,667 inWon+$1,666.528850.3%145 W · 143 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over53c1,887$1,000 inWon+$886.791,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under42c1,643$691 inLost-$691.043,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Under50c1,497$755 inLost-$754.6276249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over49c1,212$600 inWon+$612.122,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Over50c1,092$546 inWon+$54624847.6%118 W · 130 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over52c961.54$500 inWon+$461.5446258.2%269 W · 193 L-0.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Under44c824$363 inLost-$362.5662744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x426f…e76bbacked Under44c823$362 inLost-$362.1217644.9%79 W · 97 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b2…b602backed Over56c421$236 inWon+$185.245250%26 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under44c421$185 inLost-$185.246,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over50c383$192 inWon+$191.557760.5%349 W · 228 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e898backed Over56c197.5$111 inWon+$86.91844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Under48c190.42$91 inLost-$91.440952.1%213 W · 196 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b4…e861backed Over56c176.28$99 inWon+$77.567047.1%33 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over57c175.44$100 inWon+$75.441,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd43e…572fbacked Over51c88$45 inWon+$43.12250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e46…25c2backed Over57c87.72$50 inWon+$37.7211047.3%52 W · 58 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under47c79$37 inLost-$37.480148.3%387 W · 414 L-3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Under52c76.92$40 inLost-$4019957.8%115 W · 84 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b82…b217backed Under48c58.85$28 inLost-$28.252661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Under43c52.63$23 inLost-$22.6328838.2%110 W · 178 L-18.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over55c50$28 inWon+$22.445251.1%231 W · 221 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfe5…fd84backed Under50c46$23 inLost-$231346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3eb…c444backed Under45c45.09$20 inLost-$20.39650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73fb…d1bbbacked Under50c42$21 inLost-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe44b…6e0abacked Over50c40$20 inWon+$2023445.7%107 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over52c39$20 inWon+$18.728,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf9…fbc2backed Over52c38.46$20 inWon+$18.462050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5aa…1ebabacked Over58c34.48$20 inWon+$14.481573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under29c33.99$10 inLost-$10.013,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over49c32.27$16 inWon+$16.444,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f1…6349backed Over57c26.32$15 inWon+$11.3217350.9%88 W · 85 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe63b…69aabacked Over57c26.32$15 inWon+$11.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc07…1544backed Under51c21.51$11 inLost-$10.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49b6…6fd5backed Over50c20$10 inWon+$107959.5%47 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.