NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cd237493e8aee5db432ad6f35740e12bd0d80bc9871ea9fbd9b145a75924d1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98b5…e61fbacked Over | 57c | 2,405$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.3 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Under | 45c | 1,984$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.8 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 1,860$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.83 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Over | 57c | 1,752$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.79 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 1,248$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.1 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 34c | 684.75$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.63 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 43c | 499.59$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.8 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 43c | 400.19$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.08 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked Over | 79c | 379.46$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.21 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 37c | 323.37$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.55 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2f…7677backed Over | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Over | 63c | 250$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 34c | 250$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…bfb9backed Over | 67c | 232.3$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 7c | 210$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 22c | 196.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 66c | 170$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8db…bbddbacked Over | 61c | 150.05$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 44c | 150$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0581…f89ebacked Under | 34c | 147.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 47c | 140.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 38c | 135.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0564…82fdbacked Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 62c | 80.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d4…f320backed Over | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c9…9ee6backed Under | 39c | 53.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 23c | 50.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 353 | 52.4%185 W · 168 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Over | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…c06cbacked Over | 66c | 40.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 76c | 40.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce5…8e89backed Over | 66c | 33.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Over | 62c | 32.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2e…6875backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0622backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 38c | 26.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Celtics won
- Lakers vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.