NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ae2b4d52f01a30f979ccaa41dc5723407310257b0863236e3a6c5f185989db1

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 5, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $42,190
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $45,848

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,190 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under	47c	13,244$6,165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,164.97	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e1…77bfbacked Over	53c	10,926$5,791 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,135.28	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	50c	6,669$3,359 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,309.15	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over	53c	4,384$2,323 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,060.28	668	53.4%357 W · 311 L	+22.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Over	53c	4,000$2,120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,880	453	48.1%218 W · 235 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked Under	50c	3,960$1,980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,980	83	47%39 W · 44 L	-6.8wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Under	47c	3,263$1,534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,533.63	278	40.6%113 W · 165 L	-22.5wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x40a5…f0a8backed Under	47c	2,429$1,142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,141.6	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-3.7wins	-0.20per pick	48cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	46c	2,238$1,037 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,036.94	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under	47c	2,000$940 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$940	1,226	37.4%458 W · 768 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over	55c	1,821$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$821.43	369	43.4%160 W · 209 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8180…208bbacked Over	56c	1,786$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$785.71	96	52.1%50 W · 46 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Under	47c	1,064$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	164	42.1%69 W · 95 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Under	47c	1,000$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470	256	42.6%109 W · 147 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Over	53c	1,000$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$470	267	55.8%149 W · 118 L	+12.9wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Over	54c	992$536 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$456.32	434	53.2%231 W · 203 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b46…121dbacked Over	54c	920.85$497 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$423.59	315	51.7%163 W · 152 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	48c	743.46$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.57	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ce…6f34backed Over	54c	700$378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$322	137	48.9%67 W · 70 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under	52c	630.67$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.95	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	42c	554.98$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.75	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Under	50c	532$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266	172	50%86 W · 86 L	+7.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Under	47c	455.45$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.21	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	58c	406$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.52	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe903…f8e1backed Over	52c	384.62$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.62	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x336a…1915backed Under	47c	377.13$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.25	39	43.6%17 W · 22 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under	47c	350$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.5	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Under	49c	280$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.2	73	41.1%30 W · 43 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	46c	270$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.74	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over	51c	267$136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.83	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c36…9433backed Over	62c	243.84$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.84	156	41.7%65 W · 91 L	-13.9wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under	47c	212.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	366	49.5%181 W · 185 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	357	39.8%142 W · 215 L	-25.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed Under	50c	193$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.5	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	-6.0wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under	50c	164.46$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.46	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	10c	145.18$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over	52c	143$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.64	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	50c	138$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.34	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	56c	130$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.87	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b0e…5b17backed Over	60c	116.67$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.67	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Under	48c	114$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.93	500	47.2%236 W · 264 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	47c	106.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,758	48.7%856 W · 902 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	37c	100$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Over	57c	100$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43	230	47%108 W · 122 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd87b…946dbacked Under	43c	86.34$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-3.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	45c	81.82$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.82	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49a0…29acbacked Under	51c	80.39$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.19per pick	51cpaid	+41.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf54a…e25dbacked Over	55c	72.73$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.73	157	52.2%82 W · 75 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd091…105bbacked Over	54c	54.3$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.98	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+106.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e9b…829ebacked Over	60c	54.28$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.71	103	45.6%47 W · 56 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e3d…d3e6backed Over	52c	51.12$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.54	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Under	39c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	353	52.4%185 W · 168 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b74…b58fbacked Over	72c	50$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14	166	69.9%116 W · 50 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	68cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under	48c	41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.53	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Over	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	378	48.9%185 W · 193 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Under	47c	39$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.33	339	49.9%169 W · 170 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	53c	29$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.63	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb53c…c76ebacked Over	52c	28.85$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.85	487	40.7%198 W · 289 L	-13.0wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bc5…7ac4backed Over	55c	21.82$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.82	74	52.7%39 W · 35 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x218e…e49dbacked Over	60c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	482	55%265 W · 217 L	-9.6wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f5…57e2backed Over	62c	17.74$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.74	70	48.6%34 W · 36 L	-8.3wins	-0.12per pick	60cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5this page
1H Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Celtics won
Lakers vs. CelticsCeltics won
Lakers vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
Lakers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
Lakers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
Lakers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5Over won
Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5Over won
Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5Over won
Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5Over won
Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5Over won
Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5Over won
Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Over won
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Celtics won
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Celtics won
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Celtics won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event