MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x176c14f527703cb3d8c88e2e45662162fe8b04a1a8c7cd53ad057276855bb263
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 52c | 61,043$31,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,542.33 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 21,896$11,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,384.22 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 51c | 21,727$11,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,080.98 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 37c | 10,690$3,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,948.84 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 5,716$2,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,669.54 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 63c | 2,715$1,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec37…85bdbacked Over | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -13.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 39c | 1,597$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.83 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 50c | 1,340$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.93 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 450.39$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.81 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 39c | 443.54$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.84 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 50c | 360.96$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.48 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 39c | 353.49$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.66 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 32c | 305.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 27c | 217.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 22c | 215.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 50c | 210$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Under | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 61c | 181$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x411e…ebf0backed Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816b…d69dbacked Over | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 19c | 135.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 39c | 115.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Under | 72c | 104.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Over | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 51c | 51.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…1fafbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Over | 50c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 41c | 34.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…f703backed Under | 49c | 30.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 54c | 26.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Over | 55c | 22.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…0cd6backed Over | 52c | 19.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.