MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ff2ed21efd75b4c2f05c8991c89375bde44ede0beff4a2fdfafbe07b28edf4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 70c | 3,482$2,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.18 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 2,142$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.83 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 1,441$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.13 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…b35cbacked Washington Nationals | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d2…399bbacked Washington Nationals | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 1,042$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 971.38$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.39 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 68c | 924.13$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.41 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 758.44$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.9 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 552.48$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.23 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 521.9$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Washington Nationals | 18c | 413$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.43 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 334.3$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.48 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Washington Nationals | 25c | 320$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83b…2d16backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 313$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.67 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Washington Nationals | 59c | 293.01$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.87 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 268.29$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.29 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 231.44$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.92 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Washington Nationals | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 183$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.71 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 178.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.57 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 176.95$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 172.74$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Washington Nationals | 70c | 140.65$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 29c | 122.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.39 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 120.23$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.79 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 119.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…cd5fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 80.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 19c | 79.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 76.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 76.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 68.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 63.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 56.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 53.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 52.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Washington Nationals | 80c | 51.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 46.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 35.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 70c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 33.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 31.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 30.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 28.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…44a2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 26.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…2be7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 24.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 23.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 21.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 15.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.