NFL · resolved market
Colts vs. Steelers: O/U 49.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17a78343c1bfdcb12e7e8a7df79a4740c513fa56641a5b60649d99fa249629bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Under | 43c | 24,184$10,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,785.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 57c | 22,394$12,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,764.73 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 54c | 1,693$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.01 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 57c | 1,053$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.16 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 44c | 897.34$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.45 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 57c | 735.05$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.36 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 46c | 570.68$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.17 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 44c | 547.73$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.48 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Under | 45c | 499.99$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.99 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc5…c31fbacked Under | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Over | 58c | 400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…b4b0backed Over | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Over | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Under | 44c | 272.73$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.73 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 41c | 243.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.62 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 45c | 93.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c61…5213backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 58c | 85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…0b62backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 44c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 58c | 41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…09a3backed Over | 54c | 37.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Under | 45c | 36.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…ab50backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colts vs. Steelers: O/U 49.5this page
- Colts vs. SteelersSteelers won
- Colts vs. Steelers: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Colts vs. Steelers: 1H O/U 25.5Under won
- Colts vs. Steelers: O/U 50.5Under won
- Colts vs. Steelers: O/U 51.5Under won
- Spread: Colts (-2.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Colts (-3.5)Steelers won
- Steelers Team Total: O/U 22.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.