NFL · resolved market
Spread: Colts (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfa404d30af509ffb9dda0b7cae714c6f6b52d030dddad76d4c7f9f6b22db773
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Steelersof Colts, Steelers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Steelers | 46c | 9,344$4,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,049.18 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Colts | 56c | 7,067$3,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,957.72 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Steelers | 44c | 6,932$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,881.82 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Steelers | 44c | 6,452$2,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,607.25 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Colts | 57c | 3,597$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050.29 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Colts | 54c | 3,095$1,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,671.48 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…b76cbacked Colts | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…ba58backed Colts | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Colts | 58c | 1,200$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2a…3141backed Colts | 58c | 859.18$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Steelers | 42c | 830.59$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.36 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Steelers | 48c | 799.99$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Colts | 55c | 690.45$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.09 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Colts | 59c | 600$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Colts | 52c | 596.15$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Colts | 55c | 510$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.9 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Steelers | 45c | 309.46$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.09 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Colts | 55c | 298.56$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.21 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b56…7ababacked Colts | 59c | 255.93$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Colts | 54c | 253.52$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.9 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Colts | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked Colts | 57c | 188.86$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.26 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Steelers | 43c | 177.96$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.44 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Colts | 58c | 147.76$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Steelers | 42c | 140$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked Colts | 58c | 140$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Steelers | 43c | 115$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Steelers | 42c | 110.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.77 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Steelers | 43c | 110$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Steelers | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Colts | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c88…5685backed Colts | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked Steelers | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…ab50backed Colts | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe318…3506backed Colts | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Colts (-2.5)this page
- Colts vs. SteelersSteelers won
- Colts vs. Steelers: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Colts vs. Steelers: 1H O/U 25.5Under won
- Colts vs. Steelers: O/U 49.5Under won
- Colts vs. Steelers: O/U 50.5Under won
- Colts vs. Steelers: O/U 51.5Under won
- Spread: Colts (-3.5)Steelers won
- Steelers Team Total: O/U 22.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.