NFL · resolved market
Colts vs. Steelers: O/U 50.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea9850629b884fd1cdc182491a2ff33cbe8a9eecaafa77245feb1cfb60b7cb23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Over | 55c | 13,048$7,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,175.55 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 44c | 7,474$3,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,180.98 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 45c | 5,750$2,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,182.5 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 1,408$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.91 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 45c | 1,391$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.75 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 47c | 1,325$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.75 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…c142backed Under | 47c | 1,076$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 53c | 1,057$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.3 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 56c | 1,032$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.92 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…2b2dbacked Under | 47c | 970$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Over | 55c | 743.64$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 684.8$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.86 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 48c | 668.26$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.43 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…c144backed Under | 47c | 642$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf09…88b3backed Under | 47c | 638$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…4341backed Over | 53c | 436$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…d262backed Over | 53c | 432$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff93…ca00backed Over | 53c | 427$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c98…afbdbacked Over | 53c | 412$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Over | 57c | 347.85$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98e…6ad2backed Over | 53c | 327$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfec8…9a19backed Over | 53c | 317$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…e8d0backed Over | 50c | 287.09$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.35 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 54c | 269.14$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.28 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Over | 52c | 228$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.18 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…db42backed Over | 53c | 221$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e6…2ad9backed Over | 53c | 216$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 42c | 206.9$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…e56fbacked Over | 53c | 201$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Over | 56c | 195.71$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.6 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over | 34c | 150$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…5722backed Under | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d4…2708backed Over | 53c | 124$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42cd…d786backed Over | 54c | 106.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…6617backed Over | 53c | 106$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Over | 56c | 103.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2791backed Under | 49c | 82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Over | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -9.5wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Under | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…09a3backed Over | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…8aa2backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Over | 51c | 23.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colts vs. Steelers: O/U 50.5this page
- Colts vs. SteelersSteelers won
- Colts vs. Steelers: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Colts vs. Steelers: 1H O/U 25.5Under won
- Colts vs. Steelers: O/U 49.5Under won
- Colts vs. Steelers: O/U 51.5Under won
- Spread: Colts (-2.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Colts (-3.5)Steelers won
- Steelers Team Total: O/U 22.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.