MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17be18c97790b2456aacf6a91e727a565626e80688bb0edbfbe6403ce10b6dfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 47c | 1,394$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.16 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 58c | 412$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.62 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 52c | 240.38$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 53c | 193$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.29 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 47c | 165.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed7…aae7backed Yes | 48c | 165.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.95 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 51c | 157.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 53c | 145.28$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 48c | 135.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 25c | 106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…9351backed No | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Yes | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked No | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed No | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 185 | 56.2%104 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…0650backed No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…26e3backed No | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed No | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…4d21backed No | 53c | 27.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giantsthis page
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.