MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89aea289ec97facb6cf2018cf3a9357154e078cbf37a94d274b57be904ea826c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 50c | 13,957$6,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,944.06 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 6,653$3,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,494.42 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 29c | 5,063$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,600.36 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 66c | 3,919$2,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,576.47 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 58c | 3,713$2,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.72 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 50c | 2,596$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.06 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 42c | 2,384$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.18 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 75c | 1,189$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.13 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 1,129$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.28 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 51c | 1,021$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.29 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Under | 51c | 691.61$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.89 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 615.7$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.14 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 50c | 585$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.5 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 51c | 534$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.66 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 50c | 465.01$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.96 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 50c | 299$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 62c | 264.52$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 69c | 222.54$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.17 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 51c | 215.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.69 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 69c | 210.79$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 57c | 162.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…5862backed Over | 73c | 159$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.85 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 51c | 158.63$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.73 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…16b9backed Over | 77c | 153.38$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 149.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 51c | 142$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.58 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 52c | 134$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 65c | 124.09$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 65c | 124.08$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 35c | 122.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.32 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Over | 68c | 111.96$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Under | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Over | 56c | 100.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Over | 36c | 95.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Under | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 68c | 82.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Under | 68c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under | 51c | 64.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 51c | 51.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 27c | 49.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Over | 47c | 47.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 50c | 46.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 56c | 46.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…08d9backed Over | 25c | 42.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Under | 42c | 41.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 51c | 39.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 60c | 37.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Over | 70c | 34.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed Over | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfafa…26cbbacked Under | 41c | 29.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 72c | 28.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 51c | 27.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Over | 73c | 27.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Over | 44c | 23.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Over | 63c | 22.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 61cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…93f9backed Over | 64c | 18.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 73c | 15.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.