MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa167d3e6056123a4f994d5b3db907325df09d3d651a5167202bbeba754239561
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 59c | 6,275$3,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,709.26 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 5,923$2,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,481.41 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 36c | 2,293$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.36 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Over | 62c | 483$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.46 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 67c | 467.48$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.65 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 51c | 314.08$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.1 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 46c | 263$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.98 | 820 | 42.6%349 W · 471 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 218$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.36 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 61c | 184.66$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.11 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…22d2backed Under | 72c | 181.15$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 112.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Under | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 22c | 96.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 324 | 34.6%112 W · 212 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Over | 52c | 94.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 42c | 82.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 42c | 72.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 39c | 71.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 41c | 54.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 30c | 53.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 532 | 38.5%205 W · 327 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…8f07backed Over | 46c | 53.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Under | 58c | 50.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 65c | 37.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 56c | 34.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Over | 55c | 23.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d41…6a2ebacked Over | 57c | 20.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.